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NCAA Division-1 Baseball Regionals Projection 09 May 2016

May 9, 2016
TD Ameritrade Park, in Omaha, Nebraska, will host the 2016 College World Series.

TD Ameritrade Park, in Omaha, Nebraska, will host the 2016 College World Series.

As we sit a fortnight and a half away from Selection Monday for the NCAA Division 1 Baseball Tournament, the shakeups are beginning to occur. Not only are there new projected hosts, this week’s Field of 64 has two sites hosted by teams that are not number one seeds.

Starting from the top, two of last week’s national seeds drop out: Mississippi is relegated to host status while UC Santa Barbara plunges to a projected 2-seed. The Gauchos were last week’s only host west of the Rocky Mountains and, with ten teams calling the Mountain or Pacific Time Zones home, two squads that would, otherwise, host, will be sent out west as a 1-seed to handle geographic concerns by the selection committee.

Georgia Tech is projected as a 1-seed at the Los Angeles Regional, hosted by UC Santa Barbara while North Carolina makes the trip to Arizona as the top seed in the Tucson Regional. Meanwhile, LSU steps aside this week as Vanderbilt replaces their SEC brothers as one of the 16 regional hosts.

UC Santa Barbara also falls to at-large status, as Cal State Fullerton is, now, projected to win the Big West Conference’s automatic bid. The only other change is conference champions is in the Big Ten, as Michigan gets the nod over Minnesota.

With all the turmoil mentioned above, only three teams swap out in this week’s field: Pittsburgh, North Florida and Maryland are on the outside looking in as Boston College, College of Charleston and Kentucky slide in to the trifecta of slots.

Not surprisingly, this projection is the most volatile of any of the half-dozen offered since the mid-point of the 2016 baseball season. While RPI, conference strength and current records are the main factors in producing this week’s offering, predicted outcomes of the remaining regular-season games weigh heavier than normal this week. Three conferences do not have post-season tournaments and, while the Ivy League is a 1-seed conference and the Big West is, fairly, assured of having three representatives, the PAC-12 is an utter mess. Rational thought allows the conference to have four teams in the June field, but the conference’s leader, Washington, and the tenth-place team, California, are separated by 3.5 games. Six of those teams are not in this week’s projection and two, Utah and Southern California, are sub-.500 teams, overall, so, the eyes of the committee will be, squarely, on the PAC-12 over the next three weeks.

Gainesville Regional
(1) Florida (SEC champion)
Minnesota (Big Ten at-large)
Duke (ACC at-large)
Florida A&M (MEAC champion)

Los Angeles Regional
Georgia Tech (ACC at-large)
UC Santa Barbara (Big West at-large) *host*
California (PAC-12 at-large)
St. Mary’s (WCC champion)

Raleigh Regional
(8) North Carolina State (ACC at-large)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial champion)
Washington (PAC-12)
Navy (Patriot champion)

Oxford Regional
Mississippi (SEC at-large)
Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt champion)
Boston College (ACC at-large)
Alabama State (SWAC champion)

College Station Regional
(4) Texas A&M (SEC at-large)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 at-large)
Dallas Baptist (MVC champion)
New Mexico (MWC champion)

Lubbock Regional
Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Rice (C-USA champion)
Long Beach State (Big West at-large)
Kentucky (SEC at-large)

Columbia Regional
(5) South Carolina (SEC at-large)
Wake Forest (ACC at-large)
Northwestern State (Southland at-large)
Southeast Missouri State (OVC champion)

Tucson Regional
North Carolina (ACC at-large)
Arizona (PAC-12 champion) *host*
Cal State Fullerton (Big West champion)
Seattle (WAC champion)

Coral Gables Regional
(3) Miami-Florida (ACC champion)
Creighton (Big East champion)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA at-large)
Monmouth (Metro Atlantic champion)

Charlottesville Regional
Virginia (ACC at-large)
East Carolina (AAC at-large)
Oregon State (PAC-12 at-large)
VCU (Atlantic 10 champion)

Clemson Regional
(6) Clemson (ACC at-large)
Georgia (SEC at-large)
UNC Greensboro (Southern champion)
Princeton (Ivy champion)

Conway (SC) Regional
Coastal Carolina (Big South champion)
LSU (SEC at-large)
College of Charleston (Colonial at-large)
Hartford (America East champion)

Louisville Regional
(2) Louisville (ACC at-large)
Michigan (Big Ten champion)
Bryant (Northeast champion)
Wright State (Horizon champion)

Nashville Regional
Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
TCU (Big 12 at-large)
BYU (WCC at-large)
Kent State (MAC champion)

Tallahassee Regional
(7) Florida State (ACC at-large)
Tulane (AAC champion)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland champion)
Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun champion)

Starkville Regional
Mississippi State (SEC at-large)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA at-large)
South Alabama (Sun Belt at-large)
Oral Roberts (Summit champion)

Last Ten Teams In:

Kentucky
BYU
College of Charleston
Oregon State
Long Beach State
South Alabama
California
Boston College
Duke
Northwestern State

First Ten Teams Out:

Pittsburgh
North Florida
Michigan State
Gonzaga
Arizona State
High Point
Nebraska
Maryland
Old Dominion
UCLA

Teams by conference:

ACC (11)
SEC (9)
PAC-12 (4)
Big 12 (3)
Big West (3)
C-USA (3)
AAC (2)
Big Ten (2)
Colonial (2)
Southland (2)
Sun Belt (2)
WCC (2)
America East (1)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Atlantic Sun (1)
Big East (1)
Big South (1)
Horizon (1)
Ivy (1)
Metro Atlantic (1)
MAC (1)
MEAC (1)
MVC (1)
MWC (1)
Northeast (1)
OVC (1)
Patriot (1)
Southern (1)
SWAC (1)
Summit (1)
WAC (1)

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