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NCAA Baseball Regionals Projection 02 May 2016

May 2, 2016
Sophomore LHP Adam Haseley has Virginia trying to duplicate 2015's path: a hot start, a mid-season lull and finishing strong. 2015's formula led Brian O'Conor's team to the College World Series title. Thus far, the young Cavaliers are back in hosting contention. (photo courtesy of

Sophomore LHP Adam Haseley has Virginia trying to duplicate 2015’s path: a hot start, a mid-season lull and finishing strong. 2015’s formula led Brian O’Connor’s team to the College World Series title. Thus far, the young Cavaliers are back in hosting contention. (photo courtesy of

Less than a month from Selection Monday, there are few teams who are, likely, set for their destinations for the first weekend of June. Barring a highly improbable collapse, Florida, Louisville, Miami-Florida and South Carolina are virtual locks to receive national seeds. Florida State, Mississippi, Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara are projected as the final four remaining national seeds, but the chance of any/all of these four teams dropping out to host status sits at, approximately, 25%. UC Santa Barbara replaces North Carolina State as a national seed this week, as the Wolfpack drops just below the top eight.

Joining North Carolina State in the second tier this week are Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas Tech and Virginia. The Bulldogs and Cavaliers replace North Carolina and Rice, who slip to 2-seeds in this week’s projection.

Three conferences have new projected champions this week: Tulane replaces East Carolina in the AAC, Washington edges out Arizona in the PAC-12 and Jacksonville gets the nod over North Florida for the Atlantic Sun automatic bid. With the change in the Atlantic Sun, the conference is projected to have both teams make the tourney, leaving one squad on the outside looking in for an at-large bid.

North Florida joins Cal State Fullerton, Duke, Long Beach State, Maryland and Oregon State as teams who knock out six teams that made last week’s Field of 64: Alabama, Boston College, College of Charleston, Kentucky, New Orleans and Notre Dame.

Once again, the ACC leads the way with 11 representatives in the tournament, followed by the SEC with eight and PAC-12 with four.

This projection, while far from scientific, is, somewhat, of a mathematical representation of which 64 teams will make the 2016 NCAA Division One Baseball Championship Tournament. Factors taken into account include team records, team RPIs, strength of conference, and predicted future results. Also, a balance has been attempted to be made to address geographical concerns as well as to create evenly-matched regional groupings.

Gainesville Regional
(1) Florida (SEC champion)
Bryant (Northeast champion)
Arizona (PAC-12 at-large)
Navy (Patriot champion)

Raleigh Regional
North Carolina State (ACC at-large)
Georgia (SEC at-large)
East Carolina (AAC at-large)
UNC Greensboro (Southern champion)

Los Angeles Regional
(8) UC Santa Barbara (Big West champion)
Washington (PAC-12 champion)
BYU (WCC at-large)
Seattle (WAC champion)

Baton Rouge Regional
LSU (SEC at-large)
North Carolina (ACC at-large)
North Florida (Atlantic Sun at-large)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland champion)

Columbia Regional
(4) South Carolina (SEC at-large)
Wake Forest (ACC at-large)
Southeast Missouri State (OVC champion)
Hartford (America East champion)

Clemson Regional
Clemson (ACC at-large)
TCU (Big 12 at-large)
Oregon State (PAC-12 at-large)
Wright State (Horizon champion)

Tallahassee Regional
(5) Florida State (ACC champion)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial champion)
California (PAC-12 at-large)
Florida A&M (MEAC champion)

Conway (SC) Regional
Coastal Carolina (Big South champion)
Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun champion)
Oral Roberts (Summit champion)

Coral Gables Regional
(3) Miami-Florida (ACC champion)
Tulane (AAC champion)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA at-large)
St. Mary’s (WCC champion)

Lafayette Regional
Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt champion)
Georgia Tech (ACC at-large)
Northwestern State (Southland at-large)
Alabama State (SWAC champion)

Oxford Regional
(6) Mississippi (SEC at-large)
Michigan (Big Ten at-large)
South Alabama (Sun Belt at-large)
Princeton (Ivy champion)

Starkville Regional
Mississippi State (SEC at-large)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA at-large)
Pittsburgh (ACC at-large)
Monmouth (Metro Atlantic champion)

Louisville Regional
(2) Louisville (ACC at-large)
Minnesota (Big Ten champion)
Long Beach State (Big West at-large)
Kent State (MAC champion)

Charlottesville Regional
Virginia (ACC at-large)
Creighton (Big East champion)
Maryland (Big Ten at-large)
VCU (Atlantic 10 champion)

College Station Regional
(7) Texas A&M (SEC at-large)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 at-large)
Duke (ACC at-large)
New Mexico (MWC champion)

Lubbock Regional
Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Rice (C-USA champion)
Cal State Fullerton (Big West at-large)
Dallas Baptist (MVC champion)

Last Ten Teams In:

Cal State Fullerton
Long Beach State
North Florida
Northwestern State
Oregon State
South Alabama

First Ten Teams Out:

Arizona State
Austin Peay
Boston College
High Point
Jacksonville State
New Orleans

Teams by conference:

ACC (11)
SEC (8)
PAC-12 (4)
Big Ten (3)
Big 12 (3)
Big West (3)
C-USA (3)
AAC (2)
Atlantic Sun (2)
Southland (2)
Sun Belt (2)
WCC (2)
America East (1)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Big East (1)
Big South (1)
Colonial (1)
Horizon (1)
Ivy (1)
Metro Atlantic (1)
MAC (1)
MEAC (1)
MVC (1)
MWC (1)
Northeast (1)
OVC (1)
Patriot (1)
Southern (1)
SWAC (1)
Summit (1)
WAC (1)


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