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NCAA Baseball Regionals Projection 25 Apr 2016

April 25, 2016
Omaha's TD Ameritrade Park will host the 2016 College World Series, beginning on June 18.

Omaha’s TD Ameritrade Park will host the 2016 College World Series, beginning on June 18.

While my weekly top-25 had a few changes and three teams breaking into the top-25, this week’s NCAA Baseball Regionals projection is tame, in comparison, to last week’s offering.

In a repeat of last week, in the national seeds, there is one change of teams: Mississippi replaces UC Santa Barbara in the top-eight. The Rebels are projected, this week, as the number-six seed while the Gauchos are relegated to host status. Speaking of hosts, there is a change in one of the projected venues as Rice gets the nod this week over 2015 College World Series runner-up Vanderbilt, who gets bumped down to a 2-seed.

Three conferences have different projected winners (and an automatic bid) from last week. In the MAC, Kent State takes back the nod from Ball State, from who (or is it whom?) they lost it two weeks ago. In the Atlantic Sun, North Florida has a razor-thin edge over Jacksonville this week, wresting the auto-bid from Florida Gulf Coast. In the only projection change that affects the field, Arizona replaces California as the winner of the PAC-12’s championship. The Golden Bears remain in this week’s field of 64, but the Wildcats’ appearance bumps a hopeful at-large team.

In addition to Arizona making the field this week, Alabama, Washington, Boston College, Tulane and Wake Forest join the projection while Maryland, Duke, Oregon State, Gonzaga, Old Dominion and Cal State Fullerton are on the outside, looking in.

One note: Southland Conference member Northwestern State, while only possessing a 20-18 record and an 11-10 mark in-conference, is, currently, slotted as a 2-seed, based upon their strong RPI and projected finish to the season. This is a team that could be left out by the selection committee, so, keep your eyes on Lane Brown’s Demons in Natchitoches, LA.

Keep in mind that, while I have 12 ACC and 10 SEC teams projected to make the tournament, it is highly unlikely that either conference will be represented by more than nine schools when regional play begins on Friday, June 3. With just over a month to go before the selection show, the bubble watch is underway.

As in my previous projections, this field of 64 is determined by current records, RPI, conference strength and predicted finishes to the season. This is far from being a scientific projection, but based on mathematics and past tendencies of the NCAA selection committee.

Gainesville Regional
(1) Florida (SEC champion)
Virginia (ACC at-large)
Tulane (AAC at-large)
Princeton (Ivy champion)

Chapel Hill Regional
North Carolina (ACC at-large)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial champion)
UNC Greensboro (Southern champion)
Alabama (SEC at-large)

Raleigh Regional
(8) North Carolina State (ACC at-large)
East Carolina (AAC champion)
Kentucky (SEC at-large)
VCU (Atlantic 10 champion)

Conway (SC) Regional
Coastal Carolina (Big South champion)
Minnesota (Big Ten champion)
California (PAC-12 at-large)
Kent State (MAC champion)

Tallahassee Regional
(4) Florida State (ACC at-large)
Georgia (SEC at-large)
New Orleans (Southland at-large)
Florida A&M (MEAC champion)

Baton Rouge Regional
LSU (SEC at-large)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA at-large)
Pittsburgh (ACC at-large)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland champion)

Coral Gables Regional
(5) Miami-Florida (ACC champion)
Michigan (Big Ten at-large)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA at-large)
North Florida (Atlantic Sun champion)

Lubbock Regional
Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Creighton (Big East champion)
Southeast Missouri State (OVC champion)
Oral Roberts (Summit champion)

Columbia Regional
(3) South Carolina (SEC at-large)
Georgia Tech (ACC at-large)
BYU (WCC at-large)
Monmouth (Metro Atlantic champion)

Clemson Regional
Clemson (ACC at-large)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 at-large)
College of Charleston (Colonial at-large)
Hartford (America East champion)

Oxford Regional
(6) Mississippi (SEC at-large)
Wake Forest (ACC at-large)
South Alabama (Sun Belt at-large)
Navy (Patriot champion)

Lafayette Regional
Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt champion)
Mississippi State (SEC at-large)
Washington (PAC-12 at-large)
Notre Dame (ACC at-large)

Louisville Regional
(2) Louisville (ACC at-large)
Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
Bryant (Northeast champion)
Wright State (Horizon champion)

Los Angeles Regional
UC Santa Barbara (Big West champion)
Arizona (PAC-12 champion)
St. Mary’s (WCC champion)
Seattle (WAC champion)

College Station Regional
(7) Texas A&M (SEC at-large)
Northwestern State (Southland at-large)
Dallas Baptist (MVC champion)
Alabama State (SWAC champion)

Houston Regional
Rice (C-USA champion)
TCU (Big 12 at-large)
Boston College (ACC at-large)
New Mexico (MWC champion)

Last Ten Teams In:

Alabama
Notre Dame
BYU
Washington
College of Charleston
California
Kentucky
Boston College
Tulane
New Orleans

First Ten Teams Out:

Lamar
Oregon State
Maryland
High Point
Gonzaga
Jacksonville
Old Dominion
Connecticut
Jacksonville State
Rutgers

Teams by conference:

ACC (12)
SEC (10)
Big 12 (3)
C-USA (3)
PAC-12 (3)
Southland (3)
AAC (2)
Big Ten (2)
Colonial (2)
Sun Belt (2)
WCC (2)
America East (1)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Atlantic Sun (1)
Big East (1)
Big South (1)
Big West (1)
Horizon (1)
Ivy (1)
Metro Atlantic (1)
MAC (1)
MEAC (1)
MVC (1)
MWC (1)
OVC (1)
Northeast (1)
Patriot (1)
Southern (1)
SWAC (1)
Summit (1)
WAC (1)

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