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NCAA Baseball Regionals Projection 18 Apr 2016

April 18, 2016
Despite Sunday's 16-7 loss to Georgia Tech at Russ Chandler Stadium, Evan Mendoza (#18) and North Carolina State are in line for a national seed and have their sights set on Omaha. (photo courtesy of gopack.com)

Despite Sunday’s 16-7 loss to Georgia Tech at Russ Chandler Stadium, Evan Mendoza (#18) and North Carolina State are in line for a national seed and have their sights set on Omaha. (photo courtesy of gopack.com)

My third NCAA 2016 Baseball Regionals projection reveals one new national seed, four changes in hosts, five new projected conference champions and six, total, teams making it into the field of 64 while a half-dozen teams drop out and need to work on their tournament résumés.

Seven of last week’s eight national seeds return for this projection with the lone exception being Mississippi, who gets bumped in favor of North Carolina State. Meanwhile, in no particular order, Coastal Carolina, LSU, North Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette receive regional hosting nods, this week, as Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, South Alabama and College of Charleston slip to the 2-seed category.

College of Charleston, last week’s projected winner of the Colonial, is replaced by UNC Wilmington, who was, already, in the field last week. Rice, a 2-seed last week, moves up as the winner of the C-USA automatic bid over Southern Mississippi, who was tabbed as a host seven days ago. Also, Louisiana-Lafayette replaces South Alabama as the predicted winner of the Sun Belt. The Ragin’ Cajuns and Jaguars, effectively trade seedings and have no further effect on this projection as do St. Mary’s and BYU in the WCC. The Gaels and Cougars, both, made the projection last week, yet the former is predicted to hoist the conference hardware and snatch the auto-bid.

Elsewhere of note, Dallas Baptist replaces Missouri State as the projected Missouri Valley Conference winner and joins five other schools making the cut this week: Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia, Georgia and New Orleans. Falling out this week, along with Missouri State, are Lamar, Tennessee, Fresno State, Tulane and Michigan State. With the Blue Devils, defending College World Series champion Cavaliers and Fighting Irish making the projection this week, the ACC places 11 of its 14 teams in the field, at this time. The SEC has nine, as the Bulldogs replace the Volunteers going into Week Ten.

As always, this projection is based upon team records and RPI, conference strength, upcoming schedule and an attempt to determine who will “get the shaft” from the selection committee. Only one team, this week, fills the final category, as I determine that Rutgers, who has a better RPI, will be left home in favor of two-time College World Series champion Oregon State.

Gainesville Regional
(1) Florida (SEC champion)
Creighton (Big East champion)
Pittsburgh (ACC at-large)
Navy (Patriot champion)

Myrtle Beach Regional
Coastal Carolina (Big South champion)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial champion)
Duke (ACC at-large)
Hartford (America East champion)

Los Angeles Regional
(8) UC Santa Barbara (Big West champion)
Michigan (Big Ten at-large)
St. Mary’s (WCC champion)
Seattle (WAC champion)

Nashville Regional
Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
Oklahoma State (Big 12 at-large)
Notre Dame (ACC at-large)
Wright State (Horizon champion)

College Station Regional
(4) Texas A&M (SEC at-large)
TCU (Big 12 at-large)
Oregon State (PAC-12 at-large)
Oral Roberts (Summit champion)

Lubbock Regional
Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Rice (C-USA champion)
California (PAC-12 champion)
Dallas Baptist (MVC champion)

Columbia Regional
(5) South Carolina (SEC at-large)
Virginia (ACC at-large)
Bryant (Northeast champion)
Southeastern Louisiana (Southland champion)

Clemson Regional
Clemson (ACC at-large)
College of Charleston (Colonial at-large)
Gonzaga (WCC at-large)
Southeast Missouri State (OVC champion)

Louisville Regional
(3) Louisville (ACC at-large)
Minnesota (Big Ten champion)
Kentucky (SEC at-large)
Ball State (MAC champion)

Baton Rouge Regional
LSU (SEC at-large)
South Alabama (Sun Belt at-large)
Northwestern State (Southland at-large)
New Mexico (MWC champion)

Raleigh Regional
(6) North Carolina State (ACC at-large)
East Carolina (AAC champion)
UNC Greensboro (Southern champion)
Alabama State (SWAC champion)

Chapel Hill Regional
North Carolina (ACC at-large)
Mississippi State (SEC at-large)
Old Dominion (C-USA at-large)
VCU (Atlantic 10 champion)

Coral Gables Regional
(2) Miami-Florida (ACC champion)
Maryland (Big Ten at-large)
New Orleans (Southland at-large)
Florida A&M (MEAC champion)

Oxford Regional
Mississippi (SEC at-large)
Southern Mississippi (C-USA at-large)
Cal State Fullerton (Big West at-large)
Monmouth (Metro Atlantic champion)

Tallahassee Regional
(7) Florida State (ACC at-large)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA at-large)
Georgia (SEC at-large)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun champion)

Lafayette Regional
Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt champion)
Georgia Tech (ACC at-large)
BYU (WCC at-large)
Princeton (Ivy champion)

Last Ten Teams In:

Oregon State
Old Dominion
Gonzaga
New Orleans
Cal State Fullerton
Notre Dame
Duke
Georgia
BYU
Pittsburgh

First Ten Teams Out:

Rutgers
Michigan State
Wake Forest
Lamar
Arizona
Alabama
Fresno State
Jacksonville State
Connecticut
Washington

Teams by conference:

ACC (11)
SEC (9)
C-USA (4)
Big Ten (3)
Big 12 (3)
Southland (3)
WCC (3)
Big West (2)
Colonial (2)
PAC-12 (2)
Sun Belt (2)
America East (1)
AAC (1)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Atlantic Sun (1)
Big East (1)
Big South (1)
Horizon (1)
Ivy (1)
Metro Atlantic (1)
MAC (1)
MEAC (1)
MVC (1)
MWC (1)
OVC (1)
Northeast (1)
Patriot (1)
Southern (1)
SWAC (1)
Summit (1)
WAC (1)

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