NCAA Division-I Baseball Regionals Projection – May 12

The Columbia Lions defeated Dartmouth two games to one to win the Ivy League Title and advance to the NCAA Division-I Baseball Tournament for the third consecutive year. (Photo courtesy of Columbia University Athletics)

As the regular season winds down, changes continue, as in previous weeks. Six of last week’s eight national seeds remain after UC Santa Barbara suffered through a 1-3 week and Vanderbilt lost two of three at home to Florida to drop out of the top-eight. The Gators, along with FSU, return to the national seed projections, along with LSU, Louisville, TCU, UCLA, Illinois and Texas A&M.

The Gauchos and Commodores are, both, projected to host regionals, but UCSB’s rough week has them teetering on the brink of traveling for regional play. Southern Cal drops from hosting after a pedestrian 2-2 week and is replaced by Houston, while Iowa, projected last week to host as a 2-seed, gives way to Missouri State. Teams joining the Cougars and Bears are Miami-Florida, Oklahoma State, Dallas Baptist, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt and UC Santa Barbara.

Dallas Baptist is being, seriously, considered for a national seed, as the Patriots have occupied the top spot in the RPI rankings for most of the season. Similarly, five years ago, Coastal Carolina held the top RPI late in the season and, despite playing in the Big South, was awarded a #4 national seed.

Despite being swept at home by Rice, Florida Atlantic remains as a regional host in this week’s projection. Rice, along with College of Charleston, Radford, Coastal Carolina and Iowa, remain in the mix for hosting duties.

Three teams drop out of this week’s projection: Michigan State, Kentucky and Connecticut. Maryland rejoins the field of 64 this week, as Liberty and North Carolina State take the last two open spots.

One automatic bid was decided last weekend as Columbia defeated Dartmouth two games to one in the Ivy League Championship held at the Lions’ Robertson Field at Satow Stadium. Automatic bids will be decided this week in the MEAC, The Patriot and SWAC. The favorites to win these auto-bids are Norfolk State, Navy and Alabama State, respectively.

Last Five Teams In:
North Carolina State
Tulane
Liberty
East Carolina
California

First Five Teams Out:
Michigan State
Alabama
Indiana
Missouri
Central Florida

Next Five Teams Out:
Duke
Connecticut
Kentucky
South Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette

Here’s this week’s projection (with RPI through games of May 10):

(1) Baton Rouge Regional
LSU (5)
Coastal Carolina (19)
Southeastern Louisiana (44)
Alabama State (145)

Springfield Regional
Missouri State (10)
Arizona State (25)
Arkansas (50)
Southeast Missouri State (127)

(8) Tallahassee Regional
Florida State (3)
Oregon State (40)
East Carolina (42)
St. John’s (74)

Boca Raton Regional
Florida Atlantic (12)
College of Charleston (13)
Virginia (31)
Stony Brook (75)

(5) Champaign Regional
Illinois (11)
Bradley (23)
Notre Dame (35)
Central Michigan (95)

Nashville Regional
Vanderbilt (14)
Iowa (21)
Tulane (45)
St. Louis (87)

(4) Los Angeles I Regional
UCLA (2)
Nevada (36)
UC Irvine (40)
San Diego (85)

Santa Barbara Regional
UC Santa Barbara (18)
Southern California (26)
North Carolina State (46)
Grand Canyon (140)

(3) Fort Worth Regional
TCU (6)
Cal State Fullerton (30)
North Florida (48)
Mercer (134)

Dallas Regional
Dallas Baptist (1)
Auburn (29)
California (41)
Navy (211)

(6) College Station Regional
Texas A&M (8)
Georgia Tech (27)
Nebraska (34)
Columbia (67)

Houston Regional
Houston (16)
Rice (20)
Maryland (38)
South Alabama (78)

(7) Gainesville Regional
Florida (7)
North Carolina (22)
Liberty (43)
Norfolk State (244)

Coral Gables Regional
Miami-Florida (4)
South Florida (28)
UNC Wilmington (37)
Rider (98)

(2) Louisville Regional
Louisville (9)
Ohio State (24)
Mississippi (33)
Wright State (60)

Stillwater Regional
Oklahoma State (15)
Radford (17)
Oral Roberts (32)
Bryant (162)