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NCAA Baseball Regionals Projection – May 5

May 4, 2015
Despite not being a projected 1-seed, the Iowa Hawkeyes could host an NCAA Regional at Duane Banks Field in Iowa City, Iowa.

Despite not being a projected 1-seed, the Iowa Hawkeyes could host an NCAA Regional at Duane Banks Field in Iowa City, Iowa.

Less than four weeks from the beginning of regional play, we are no closer to knowing, for sure, who is playing where and where the 16 host sites will be. While one can rest assured that most of the current hosts will be announced prior to the full selection of the field of 64, there are a few sites that are, still up for speculation.

Arizona State is, barely, hanging on to their hopes of hosting a regional series after a 1-3 week and a series with UCLA looming on the horizon. Still, with, only, a handful of teams projected to make the post-season from, as George Noory would say, “west of the Rockies”, I’m projecting that the Sun Devils will head to Iowa City as a 1-seed to ease some geographical issues.

Another developing story-line is with the Florida Atlantic Owls. While sporting an RPI of 11 at press time, there are two issues rising. The first is whether or not the Owls will host at FAU Baseball Stadium (capacity 2,000) or move their hosting site to a location within an hour of Boca Raton. Second, there is talk that, despite a solid national ranking as well as their current RPI, they may be selected to be a top-seed at another school’s site with the most likely destination as Joseph P. Riley Park in Charleston, SC with College of Charleston hosting. At this time, the Owls’ scenario is less likely than what Arizona State faces and, with a home site decision not reached, I will still give the nod to FAU hosting in Boca.

Seven of last week’s projected national seeds remain as Florida drops back in favor of Vanderbilt. As this projection shows, the state of Florida will have no national seeds as Florida, Florida State, Miami and Florida Atlantic are, just, outside the top-eight.

Teams that drop out of this weeks projection as at-large bids are Maryland, Texas Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette and Memphis. Replacing these four squads are East Carolina, Tulane, Arkansas and California.

One automatic bid will be decided this weekend as Columbia hosts Dartmouth in a best-of-three series at Robertson Field at Satow Park for the Ivy League title. The teams will play a doubleheader on Saturday and, if necessary, a one-game “winner takes all” contest on Sunday.

Last Five Teams In:
Notre Dame
Connecticut
East Carolina
California
UC Irvine

First Five Teams Out:
Liberty
Maryland
Indiana
Central Florida
Louisiana-Lafayette

Next Five Teams Out:
NC State
Missouri
Memphis
Boston College
Duke

And your current Field of 64 (with RPI as of May 4):

(1) Baton Rouge Regional
LSU (6)
North Carolina (23)
Tulane (39)
South Alabama (86)

Tallahassee Regional
Florida State (7)
Arkansas (37)
Southeastern Louisiana (31)
Rider (105)

(8) Nashville Regional
Vanderbilt (13)
Missouri State (10)
Oregon State (35)
Southeast Missouri State (123)

Stillwater Regional
Oklahoma State (12)
Georgia Tech (26)
Nebraska (27)
Wagner (150)

(5) Los Angeles I Regional
UCLA (4)
Ohio State (19)
UC Irvine (43)
San Diego (80)

Los Angeles II Regional
USC (18)
Nevada (41)
Notre Dame (47)
Grand Canyon (190)

(4) Fort Worth Regional
TCU (5)
Radford (20)
Oral Roberts (42)
Navy (216)

Dallas Regional
Dallas Baptist (1)
Houston (21)
Mississippi (36)
Mercer (129)

(3) Louisville Regional
Louisville (16)
Auburn (14)
Michigan State (40)
Wright State (74)

Gainesville Regional
Florida (9)
Virginia (38)
South Florida (29)
St. John’s (66)

(6) Champaign Regional
Illinois (8)
Bradley (17)
Kentucky (34)
Central Michigan (103)

Boca Raton Regional
Florida Atlantic (11)
College of Charleston (25)
East Carolina (45)
Norfolk State (256)

(7) Santa Barbara Regional
UC Santa Barbara (15)
California (44)
Cal State Fullerton (33)
Columbia (65)

Iowa City Regional
Arizona State (28)
Iowa *host* (24)
Connecticut (46)
St. Louis (92)

(2) College Station Regional
Texas A&M (2)
Rice (32)
North Florida (50)
Alabama State (126)

Coral Gables Regional
Miami-FL (3)
Coastal Carolina (22)
UNC Wilmington (30)
Stony Brook (91)

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